Israel, Iran Clash in Open Conflict

Israel and Iran exchanged direct military strikes over the weekend in a dramatic escalation that analysts say could mark the beginning of a prolonged confrontation between the two regional adversaries.

Israel launched a wide-ranging aerial campaign early Friday targeting more than 100 sites deep inside Iranian territory, including missile depots, nuclear infrastructure, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) installations. The Israeli military confirmed the operation—dubbed “Rising Lion”—was a direct response to Iran’s increasing coordination with regional proxies and what it described as an “imminent threat” to Israeli security.

Iran responded within hours with “Operation True Promise III,” firing a barrage of over 150 ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli targets, including in Tel Aviv and Haifa. Most were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome and David’s Sling air defense systems, though several penetrated defenses, killing at least three civilians and injuring dozens. Iranian state media reported at least seven military casualties, though independent verification remains limited due to restricted access.

The exchange marks the first openly acknowledged direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran, whose decades-long conflict has largely played out through proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. “This is not a skirmish,” said Yael Mizrahi-Arnaud, a former Israeli national security advisor. “This is a recalibration of red lines, and both countries seem willing to test how far they can push without triggering all-out war.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a nationally televised address, said the strikes would continue “as long as necessary,” vowing to hold Tehran accountable for what he called “a decade of clandestine aggression.” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned the Israeli assault as “a violation of sovereignty and an act of war,” promising that Iran would “respond in kind and beyond.” The United States, while publicly supporting Israel’s right to self-defense, reportedly urged both sides to avoid further escalation. U.S. Central Command confirmed it had assisted Israel with intelligence and limited missile interception but emphasized that American forces were not involved in offensive operations.

The flare-up comes as talks between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program have stalled. European diplomats, already struggling to revive the 2015 nuclear accord, warned that the window for diplomacy may now be “functionally closed.” Markets reacted swiftly, with global oil prices surging over 9% amid fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Regional airlines suspended routes over Iranian and Israeli airspace, and several Gulf states placed their militaries on high alert.

Though both nations have so far avoided targeting critical civilian infrastructure, military analysts warn that the situation could spiral if regional actors like Hezbollah or the Houthis are drawn into the conflict. “There is no off-ramp visible yet,” said a Tehran-based political analyst. “For the first time in this cold war, the masks are off.”